Tuesday, April 1, 2003

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Markets likely to maintain


Investment pros said the country has been anticipating war, so stock prices should remain steady

By Christopher Clough
News-Chronicle

If you're doing well now, just stay the course.

That's what some local financial advisors said when asked if the launch of America's military action in Iraq should cause investors to make significant changes in their portfolios.

They said it isn't likely that the fighting will cause the market to fall off dramatically, as happened during the first few weeks of Desert Storm in 1991.

"The main thing is anticipation. The buildup (toward war) has been going on for some time," said Jeff Kaftan, vice president of investments with the Green Bay office of Robert W. Baird & Co. "It's not like a shock to the system.

"In 1991, people weren't ready when we went into Kuwait (to start the Desert Storm campaign against Iraq), so the market went down. This time, people are ready for it. It's already been fairly well priced into the market."

Kaftan said the typical "wartime economy," with increased demand artificially propping up a previously soft economy, probably had little to do with the market's rise this past week.

"I think it's just psychology," he said. "Once this thing started, there was one less variable, one lees uncertainty out there. Now we know it's started, a resolution to the uncertainty is closer at hand.

"I think the uncertainty of war held back spending in capital expenditures. It was one more reason not to spend money. We've had enough of those reasons the last three years (since Sept. 11, 2001), so if we can remove this one, we can move ahead."

Kaftan and Guy Zima, registered stockbroker at La Salle Street Securities Inc., said it's too soon to tell which direction the economy will go. And because of that, they said long-term growth strategies should still be followed, instead of picking and choosing stocks that might skyrocket or plummet on any given day.

"The economy's still fairly soft, but it's been neutral," Zima said. "Whether government spending on the war breaks our backs or puts more money into the system, that's now the $64 question. I think if people invest carefully, they'll do well for the next one to five years."

"If things are looking like they're going well in the war, markets will respond positively," Kaftan said. "But if it looks like the war will drag out, they won't respond well.

"Current events shouldn't affect buying or selling. Defense stocks, oil stocks, if you're buying or selling based on the events of the day, you won't do well. You should develop a strategy for the long haul that will weather the storms."


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