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SNC poll: Kerry holds narrow lead


Voters cite economy, Iraq as top issues


News-Chronicle

Sen. John Kerry leads President Bush by five percentage points - within the margin of error - in a poll taken during the first half of October by the St. Norbert College Survey Center.

The poll, sponsored by Wisconsin Public Radio, shows Kerry leading among likely voters 48-43 percent, with 5 percent undecided. This is within the 5 percent margin of error for the poll. The poll was taken of 401 likely voters during the Oct. 4-13 period, which ended on the day of the final presidential debate.

Third-party candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 2 percent, 2 percent listed "other candidate" and 1 percent did not answer.

Nader's support, the survey showed, seems to be evenly split between those who would have voted for other candidates. Those saying they'd support Nader, asked who they would support if he was not running, split 33-33 between Bush and Kerry, with 17 percent undecided and 17 percent saying they would not vote.

Kerry also holds a edge among those who told pollsters they "definitely would vote, but only a 48-44 percent lead. Among "probable" voters, the lead is larger, 44-34 percent, but the number of those unsure jumps from 4 to 14 percent.

Kerry also leads among the undecided, 40-35 percent, with Nader getting 15 percent.

As for the issues, the top choices as "very important" went to the Iraq situation and the economy, both chosen by 79 percent of the voters. The overall war on terror was chosen by 65 percent, policies at home against terrorism by 75 percent and health care-prescription drugs 70 percent. Only 1 or 2 percent said these issues were "not important at all."

The issue that got the largest vote for "not important" was gay marriage with 28 percent, followed by abortion at 14 percent (although 36 percent rated it very important) and stem cell research at 8 percent.

Other options were taxes (48 percent very important), education (68 percent very important), environmental issues (43 percent very important), and immigration (33 percent).

Bush outpolled Kerry as better on foreign policy issues, 49-45 percent on Iraq and 51-43 percent on homeland policies. Kerry did better than Bush on the economy (56-38 percent), health care (59-33 percent), taxes (49-42 percent) and the environment (49-42 percent).

In what could be considered a predictable response, 88 percent of those who feel the country is going in the right direction support Bush; 82 percent of those who feel it's going in the wrong direction support Kerry.

Among voters calling themselves independent, 48 percent support Kerry, 31 percent Bush. But of those who say they are "not sure" which party they are more strongly affiliated with, 44 percent support Bush, 22 percent Kerry.

Kerry's strongest age group is the 18-24-year-old section, 62-39, but leads most of the other groups. Bush's best showing came among those 35-44, 51-42 percent.

Nader's best showing, 3 percent, came among those age 65-older.

As for educational background, Kerry's support gradually grows from those who do not have a high school diploma (60-40 Bush) to those with a graduate or professional degree (67-32 Kerry).

Kerry leads in income categories under $35,000 a year and in the $51,000-$75,000 a year range; Bush leads narrowly in the $36,000-$50,000 category and has wider leads in the higher categories.

Men lean toward Bush 46-43 percent; Kerry has a 52-41 lead among women.


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